Adapting to the reality of supply chains in the new world order

Indeed these are troubling times for those who are closely involved in cyber defence of electricity systems around the world. 

With the growing uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape and the decline of the rules-based order, it is increasingly difficult to navigate the sturdiness of longstanding global alliances, how intelligence is being shared between traditional allies, and how powerful nations are choosing to use cyber as a tool for the defence of peaceful nations, or as a tool to demonstrate their power over smaller nations.

This trend has become more visible in recent times with active cyber-attacks on electricity networks in Poland, attributed to Sandworm (a GRU-linked offence team), echoing their participation in the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the original attacks on the power grids back in 2016. As demonstrated in Venezuela, there are increasing patterns of military ops using a combination of both kinetic and cyber offensive capabilities against electricity grids. This is far from ideal, but something we have to accept as the new reality.

Politicians, defence analysts and regulators have been waking up to this over the last 2-3 years,  introducing new laws and regulations for cyber for critical infrastructure around supply chain visibility, and addressing the issues of foreign control and interference more head on. And with recent global events, they are now peddling faster. In Australia, we have sweeping changes afoot to our SOCI Act to be likely enacted in 2026 and take full effect within two years. 

However, for middling countries like Australia, we have to face the practical truths that we don’t have full control of our energy supply chains. And whilst we can entertain theories that we could cut ourselves off from potential disruptors to our supply chains, the reality is very different. Short of dumping net zero and returning to a coal and gas-based economy, we will depend on largely on Chinese companies for many parts of the renewables supply chain. Diversifying to other jurisdictions such as Europe and North Asia is likely sensible, but that is not something we can enact overnight.

So how do Australian IPPs and renewables OEMs adapt to this rapidly changing landscape? How does the sector preserve key issues of energy sovereignty and security with the pragmatic necessity to build out cost effective renewables projects? With the right combination of policy and innovative use of technology, there is a middle path forward; a path where we can secure our supply chains and benefit from the shared economic prosperity from diverse international trade alliances. 

Dr. Phil Blythe is an Executive Director at CAPA Intelligence, a firm of cybersecurity specialists uniquely focused on the assurance of global renewable energy supply chains. Contact us at advisory@capaintelligence.com